# Forward EMU Counterfactual: P(peg) Projections

Logit trained on OECD non-eurozone (post-1999): is_peg = f(Z, controls)

Controls held at last observed values; demographics from UN WPP projections.

| Country | P(peg) 2020 | P(peg) 2030 | P(peg) 2040 | P(peg) 2050 |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| AUT | 0.191 | 0.283 | 0.179 | 0.027 |
| BEL | 0.083 | 0.051 | 0.044 | 0.022 |
| CYP | 0.141 | 0.710 | 0.934 | 0.872 |
| DEU | 0.137 | 0.181 | 0.054 | 0.008 |
| ESP | 0.429 | 0.628 | 0.532 | 0.041 |
| EST | 0.156 | 0.163 | 0.294 | 0.234 |
| FIN | 0.129 | 0.020 | 0.038 | 0.061 |
| FRA | 0.121 | 0.031 | 0.020 | 0.010 |
| GRC | 0.500 | 0.650 | 0.595 | 0.112 |
| IRL | 0.213 | 0.175 | 0.339 | 0.176 |
| ITA | 0.235 | 0.238 | 0.133 | 0.006 |
| LTU | 0.360 | 0.328 | 0.504 | 0.536 |
| LVA | 0.412 | 0.353 | 0.444 | 0.416 |
| MLT | 0.026 | 0.064 | 0.407 | 0.556 |
| NLD | 0.167 | 0.060 | 0.061 | 0.029 |
| PRT | 0.590 | 0.556 | 0.349 | 0.040 |
| SVK | 0.137 | 0.267 | 0.368 | 0.181 |
| SVN | 0.276 | 0.199 | 0.099 | 0.015 |

**2020**: 2/18 predicted peg, 16/18 predicted float

**2030**: 4/18 predicted peg, 14/18 predicted float

**2040**: 4/18 predicted peg, 14/18 predicted float

**2050**: 3/18 predicted peg, 15/18 predicted float

*Note: LUX excluded due to missing control variables (fiscal balance, NFA, growth, or KAOPEN).*

*Higher P(peg) means demographics more consistent with choosing a fixed exchange rate. Values below 0.5 suggest the country's demographics favor floating.*

*Note: Z₁ values exhibit a discrete jump around 2035-2040 reflecting the baby-boom cohort entering old age simultaneously across countries. This produces non-monotonic P(peg) paths for some members.*